Saturday, 28 August 2010 11:17 AM

Ok first up let me declare a couple of things.... I am passionate about politics, IT and the future of Australia. I'm a centrist when it comes to politics and like some policies of both parties and dislike lots of things on both sides. If push comes to shove I would probably err on the side of the right just because of my current vocation and my upbringing but I am keen not to have a closed mind on any policy or party.

That declared my blog today is on the NBN. I deliberately didnt post about this in the weeks leading up to the election because I dont believe in getting stuck on politics particularly when passions can run very hot!

As the head of a growing IT company I have heard LOTS of things from suppliers, clients, staff and many others that I talk to regularly. These are people both in regions and in cities. The general consensus is that people seem to back the NBN or boil it depending on their view on policies and where they sit. What I have also noticed is young people love it and older people just dont get it. (in general anyway)

Here's my view having reviewed it and thought on it for a long while. Firstly lets consider the technology itself. Right now fibre to every home would be fabulous. It would deliver blinding speeds to each home and be a great step forward. Secondly there is no doubt we want to be progressive and we also know that the internet is a great ally to business, learning and in general.

So everyone is nodding right now but there are some key things to figure here. (Hence the title of this blog). I will bullet point some things to consider.

* Australia is in debt - can we afford big ticket items right now?
* Australia is HUGE! Is this the right technology to roll out for Australia?
* Based on the above what sort of maintenance plan is required? Also what is the cost of this?
* Can we really trust Government to roll out a HUGE project over 10 years and stay on time and on budget? (Think of the last projects government have rolled out)
* With the point above, with 2-3 elections in this period and likely a government change will we end up with a waste and/or a half finished project?
* We cannot compare ourselves to Korea, Japan or smaller nations. They are high density population in such a small area!
* A HUGE component of material that Australia accesses is in the US. No matter what speed you have you will always have bottlenecks. (I'm sure they have plans for proxying and larger pipes but I havent seen much on that)
* I'm not convinced on all the HUGE advantages we kept getting spun. As far as I can tell the majority of its usage will be for downloading media which would be based mostly at the teen and young adult audience. I'm not suggesting there is anything wrong about this however I am a big fan of really understanding the benefits and pointing to some real return on investment (ROI)
* I dont agree with the railroad or road analogy that keeps getting brought up. I think there is a huge difference between an infrastructure project like the ones of the past and this one. The benefits were clearly defined and the ROI was obvious.
* Those most passionate about the project seemingly dont understand that they wont get an upgrade to their existing broadband for another 5-8 years.

I could raise other minor points here but the list could go on and on.

Let me emphasise something. I am not for sticking the head in the sand when it comes to networking or that fibre to each home wouldnt be great. I am just advocating we think things through a little before we start nodding away like those nodding dogs in the back of the cars. (they are cute arent they?) Can you imagine if we went to our client base and said everyone needed to pay $15,000 + per office for a stronger connection to the internet, for only potential future benefit and with no clear ROI?

Now with regards to the coalitions proposal. It was terribly delivered and not very clear. I also thought Tony Abbott was very poor on the 7.30 report. We dont want techheads for leaders but we also dont want ignoramus's on such a clear issue of the election. My suggestion is that Tony works with some of his staff to get a good broad range of understanding on these things.

In closing I would also say that I am for having infrastructure held by the Australian people with it being retailed by private enterprise. I think this is not a perfect model but the better model than having everything privatised...

Wrapping up.... There is no point in being critical and not offering solutions. Here is my thoughts on the matter.

* Whatever way we decide to go lets clearly review the ROI and make sure every taxpayer understands the cost v the benefits.
* We should target wireless/satellite technologies for the regional areas as a priority and other places where there are clear gaps in broadband. This will help deal with our congestion in the city, stimulate the regions and also bring more of balance to the property scenes.
* We should start with a core and work on no more than 2-3 year phases to ensure that the project is better managed and we have something to build on for the future even with change of technologies and governments.
* The infrastructure should be held by the government under a company so that there is commercial activity driving the project. Companies (selective criteria) should be allowed to resell/wholesale this infrastructure and pay for this right which will help fund the project.
* I'm in favour for a cabled core and then a robust wireless solution. I just feel this would be a cheaper and more flexible solution for a place like Australia.
* The times we live in dictate the budget we can invest right now. If that means we do a smaller project and hedge our bets then so be it.

What are your thoughts?

Author: Geoff Olds | Filed Under: Broadband | 6 Comments

Comments

1 re: NBN: Note Before Nodding

Tuesday, 31 August 2010 2:54 PM by Zoran Grujic

Interesting points and comments written there Geoff.

I agree with the majority of the above however you are assuming that the Govt is in the business of making money and having an ROI on projects that it runs (eg, Building the Education Revolution or the Home Insulation Scheme). Govt Bureaucracies will take the money that this suggested company brings in and spend it on something else with little to no accountability.

I feel that your suggestion of wireless is the best thing for this country as it provides for a shorter rollout timeframe and "easier" upgrades. Over the next 5-10 years there will be another jump in technology which will undoubtadly bring its own headaches and advantages but a $43B commitment today it not the right answer.

However getthing an ROI from a Govt organisation/Political Party in regards to large scale projects is as likely as Newcastle winning the EPL.

2 re: NBN: Note Before Nodding

Tuesday, 31 August 2010 3:04 PM by geoffolds

Agreed Zoran. We did score six against villa though? LOL

3 re: NBN: Note Before Nodding

Friday, 10 September 2010 8:32 PM by Foxmeister

Broadband network performance is measured in latency and packet loss, not last mile speed. These two requirements drive network considerations like contention ratios, download limits per user, managing peer-to-peer usage, etc.

High defintion video can be adequately delivered under 4Mbps so existing cable and ADSL technologies are by and large more than adequate. Upstream speed for small business is sometimes a concern with 720kbps minimum for VoIP and data. Again, there is no business benefit / applications today that require speeds greater than 5Mbps.

The key financial driver for the Broaband Connect project (Liberal project that Labor cancelled in 2008) was a new transmission wholesale competitor to Telstra in regional Australia.

Although WiMAX broadand/telephony residential services was the political driver, the long term benefit for Australia was new mobile / broadband competition (Optus, Vodaphone, wholesale ISPs) in regional Australia.

Transmission is the highest cost component in a mobile network, especially so in regional locations. Given new technologies like LTE (4th gen mobile) will support 100Mbps peak speeds, government assistance need only be limited to assistance in getting competitive fibre transmission out to regional towns.

This is tens of millions, not billions and can be easily justified. The NBN concept is fatally flawed.

4 re: NBN: Note Before Nodding

Saturday, 11 September 2010 1:39 PM by geoffolds

Foxmeister good comments. Flawed is very correct. How fatal, only time will tell....

5 re: NBN: Note Before Nodding

Wednesday, 17 November 2010 12:59 PM by ultravolts

- Pair gain concept is dumb and needs fixing.
- Most business don't use ADSL2+ when they are able to, but instead elect for wireless 3G because they understand "plug in and get net", move over there "plug in and get net"
- VoIP is not used in over 80% of homes and businesses.
- Australian businesses and general public are living in the technological dark ages and will still happily use wireless 3G when fibre is rolled out.
- Dig up the front yard tree, don't call dial b4 u dig, cut the fibre optic cable, cable gets a joiner and halves all speeds.
- The only reason for fibre is so businesses and homes can have a portrait 46" screen in every office/room with attached camera and interact through video conference 24/7 or alternatively download large video or software packages constantly.
- Fibre maintainance is financially impossible.

Don't know why i'm just listing random points, but NBN is a cool idea, spend the same on upgrading current telephony/twisted pair/exchanges and see magic happen.

6 re: NBN: Note Before Nodding

Thursday, 24 March 2011 12:50 PM by RetroFreud

Many valid points...

Ideal Government is an organisation in which it looks after every segment of society and not just business. Ideally, public investment in infrastructure seeks to find benefit for everyone, including business. Government cannot fully operate like business, nor it should, hence ROI on such venture are difficult to measure. NBN would provide many benefits and opportunities we have yet to identify.

Historically, there are many examples of public investment that progressed civilisations.

We can a learn a thing or two about Asian economies and their capabilities to direct both public and private investment in infrastructure. It is ironic that semi-totalitarian govt like China have many clear plans about its future growth, yet 'mature' democracy such as Australia cannot have a meaningful debate, but that's another topic...

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